Statistics had proved to what extent conscious actions were
subordinated to uniform laws. We could foresee from one year to another
how many murders would be committed and how many with each kind of
instrument. The differences between men and men neutralised each other,
if we took the average of a very large number. But this did not prove
that the individual was not of considerable importance. If the victory
of Salamis depended on Themistocles, then the entire civilisation of
Europe henceforth depended on him.
Another aspect of the question was: Did the consistent determinism of
modern Science, the discovery of an unalterable interdependency in the
intellectual, as in the physical worlds, allow scope for actions
proceeding otherwise than merely illusorily from the free purpose or
determination of the individual? Very difficult the question was, and I
did not feel confident of solving it; but it was some consolation to
reflect that the doubt as to the possibility of demonstrating a full
application of the law in the domain in which chance has sway, and
Ethics its sphere, was comparatively infinitesimal in the case of those
domains in which men make themselves felt by virtue of genius or talent
as producers of literary and artistic works. Here, where natural gifts
and their necessary deployment were of such extraordinary weight, the
probability of a demonstration of natural laws was, of course, much
greater.
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